Divisions at home hinder America’s ambitions abroad

The government shutdown in the United States became the longest in the country’s history this week, the product of a corrosive political and media culture that hinders America from meeting its full potential. At the same time, election results last night in Virginia, New Jersey, California, and New York City confirm that American federalism and its democratic checks and balances remain in place, even as President Donald Trump strains them to their limits through unpopular policies that have produced a growing voter backlash.

Trump returned from an important foreign trip this past week, securing a temporary cease-fire in the trade war with China he had started but leaving many longer-term points of dispute unaddressed. The Middle East shifted, at least temporarily, toward the back burner as Trump 2.0 focused on Asia and multiple issues brewing on the domestic front. Still, important work remains underway on the Middle East file, including implementation of the cease-fires in Gaza and Lebanon and preparations for visits by two important regional leaders later this month, Syria’s de facto President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Few major breakthroughs, like a Saudi-Israeli normalization accord or significant progress in Syria’s transition, are expected in the immediate future, particularly while the internal stalemate that produced the government shutdown drags on and hampers state action. Nonetheless, the second Trump administration continues to prioritize the Middle East in its foreign policy even as it implements an ambitious agenda at home and abroad.

Trump 2.0 toggles to Asia, while threatening more military action in the Western Hemisphere and Africa

The main event for Trump’s foreign policy in late October and early November was the US president’s five-day visit to Asia, his longest overseas trip thus far. Trump signed trade deals with a number of countries in Southeast Asia, including Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The big story from this western Pacific tour was Trump’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, and the announcement of a temporary cease-fire in the trade war that had been escalating between the two countries. The bilateral deal struck may only provide a limited and temporary respite in US-China tensions, however. Many issues remain unresolved and require more extensive discussions in the coming months. Moreover, China continues to methodically bolster its dominance in key strategic sectors that impact America’s economy and security, such as pharmaceuticals, lithium-ion batteries, and commodity semiconductor chips.

Also brewing in the national security sphere over the past week has been intensifying Trump administration saber rattling against several countries around the world. This has notably included both overt and veiled threats against Venezuela and Colombia. The US has deployed substantial military assets to the region, with a carrier battlegroup on the way, ostensibly to conduct attacks against alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean. As the Trump administration discusses possible military action on Venezuelan territory — purportedly as an extension of this drug interdiction mission — President Trump issued threats against another country on a different continent: the West African nation of Nigeria. Reportedly prompted by a segment he watched on Fox News about Nigeria’s treatment of Christians, Trump issued several menacing statements on social media and directed the Pentagon to prepare for possible military action to back up his threats.

Overshadowing all of these moving parts in Trump’s foreign policy are events at home, including the longest government shutdown in America’s history.

Middle East focus: Syria and Saudi Arabia in the spotlight

The Middle East will move back to the front burner during the coming two weeks with the arrivals to the White House of two key regional leaders: Syria’s de facto President Sharaa on November 10, followed by Saudi Crown Prince Bin Salman a week later, on November 17-18. The main throughline in this pair of visits stretches back to Trump’s Middle East tour in May, when he first met Sharaa in Saudi Arabia and when he also signed a number of deals deepening America’s bilateral cooperation with three key Gulf countries, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

Sharaa’s visit comes at a time when the United States continues to work on Trump’s promise to lift sanctions against Syria, something requiring cooperation from Congress to achieve. Some House members remain skeptical of the idea of lifting sanctions. At the same time, the fact that Congress is neither fully in session nor has managed to reopen the government hampers America’s ability to move forward on the Middle East.

The Saudi crown prince will be bringing his own ambitious agenda to Washington, DC, centered on deepening bilateral ties on key issues like the economy, technology, and defense; but few analysts have high expectations for major advances on the big idea of a normalization accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The regional situation is much more stable this fall than it was in the spring and summer. However, given all of the uncertainty remaining on the Gaza front and around Iran as well, it is difficult to see a pathway for major breakthroughs between Israel and Saudi Arabia at this moment. The Trump administration has outlined longer-term plans for the Gaza Strip, including a proposed two-year United Nations mandate for an international stabilization force, but the work ahead will be voluminous and exceedingly complicated, making it difficult to achieve major leaps forward.

To have any hope of achieving gains in Middle East policy, even at a slow and steady pace, requires a fully functioning apparatus in Washington — something that was already missing even before this government shutdown due to Trump 2.0’s aggressive cuts to national security institutions and budgets. And the unilateral disarmament of key tools of US national power has only been accelerating since the government shutdown commenced on October 1. Those nine months’ worth of cumulative, self-imposed cuts will likely hinder the Trump team’s ability to shape and influence events in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

The government shutdown is the product of major political discord between Republicans and Democrats in America. And if Trump is unwilling or unable to bridge even these domestic divisions between Americans, it is difficult to see how he can effectively navigate thorny international issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Saudi Arabia’s regional concerns and ambitions, or Iran’s nuclear program.

Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute.

Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images